I was in Chicago last weekend presenting to a group of distributors with Juice Plus about their business opportunity.  In particular, it was a business analysis focused on their company, their opportunity, the Wellness Industry, the Nutrition Industry, and their business model.  At the event, I told those in attendance that I would share my training, and therefore have provided the link below.  Please note that I am NOT a Juice Plus distributor.  Much of the Wellness and Nutritional data is generic in nature but clearly shows that companies in the Wellness/Prevention industry are in a good place.  These industries are being driven by real issues (broken healthcare systems and the realization of how Prevention and Wellness are necessary to fix that problem) that exist all over the world.  Not only is “Awareness” at an all time high but so is “change” toward Wellness and Prevention.

The topic of this training was “Is this Juice Plus Opportunity Right for You”.  I share with you the topic of the training because I want to make a key business distinction that might have value to my readership.  I have always believed that the best path in recruiting distributors into any MLM venture is to educate them.  In other words, give prospects the data so they can make a good decision.  There is no right opportunity for everyone.  I believe that a major change would occur in this industry if the way distributors recruited other distributors was done more with education and less with false and misleading promises.  Remember, the path to earning a great reputation is to under promise and over deliver.  I think a key part of that process is to start telling and stop selling.  Education and data allow people to make good decisions.  This is especially true in an economic environment where distrust has become the norm vs. the exception.

There is one other point I would like to make at this time.  Often people seemed very surprised on my position regarding sharing my research and presentations.  Given the amount of work that goes into this process, I think many feel I should be much more protective of my work or only make it accessible for a fee.  That thinking brings me to an important business lesson.  Your path to earning relationships is better served through adding value vs. controlling any aspect of the relationship process.  Control has value but often it leads to the wrong type of thinking.  Of course being paid for value is part of the process.  However, VALUE COMES BEFORE COMPENSATION.  If you learn to make decisions based on serving and providing value, then you will likely find the compensation part of the business process comes easier and lasts much longer.  Just some food for thought.

Link to PowerPoint Presentation from Chicago:   http://www.gordonhester.com/chicago.ppt

Click here for Overview of PowerPoint Presentation from Chicago

I thought this was a great question and one that is often misunderstood in small business.  There is no right or wrong answer to this question.  In my experience it all depends on a few factors.

Let me start with an important point that must be understood before we begin to discuss the topic question.  The difference between an “investment” and an “expense” is:  A Result.  Therefore it is critical to understand that the desired outcome of ANY investment in a business is to produce a result greater than the investment itself.  Keep in mind that not everything spent in business is an investment (expenses are a good example). 

Now let’s look at another critical distinction.  Often an investment decision has to be made from something that is NOT proven – a sales system, a new product, a new relationship, etc.  This is what is referred to in business as the “innovation stage”.  As you can see from the chart below, it is one of the 3 key areas of business.

Innovation is a CRITICAL part of any business.  However, it is also the stage where most businesses fail.  In other words, most businesses fail to ever determine how to sustain a profit.  If you are skeptical about this, note these business failure statistics:

Business Failure Rates (Pre-Recession):
1 year – 50%
5 years – 80%
10 years – 96%

Here is a simple rule to remember about investing in the innovation stage of a business – the less you invest and the shorter time it takes to find solutions that enable you to move toward the “marketing stage”, the greater your probability of success.  This follows a simple principle that says:   Invest carefully as you are “looking for an answer” but aggressively when you “have an answer”.

As I noted in a prior blog, I have found that there are 4 key components that must be invested into in any small business:

1. Proven People – the best way to judge a proven person is by answering 3 simple questions.  Can they do the job?  Will they do the job?  Are they the right fit?  If you can involve a proven person in your business or business culture AND you can answer “yes” to these three questions, then it is worth investing in these people.  Sometimes the bigger issue is how much to invest or how long to invest before you get a return.  There is more that goes into the analysis needed to answer those questions, but I can tell you without reservation that you need proven people in order to have success in business.  Equally, it is critical to understand that investing in someone that is not proven (see the 3 questions above) can damage your business as much as investing in the right people can make it successful.  Determining “Proven People” early in the relationship process is a great skill to have in business.

2. Proven Products, Systems, Processes, etc. – This is a simple concept to understand.  These items are typically a part of the “Innovation Stage of Business” that I described above.  Therefore, it is often easier to align with a business culture or opportunity that has solved these typical innovation strategies than to figure them out on your own.  If you can find such a culture, then your goal is to “learn” vs. “create”.  For many small business owners, this is a key factor in their success,  limitation of  investment in their business and the speed at which they can make a profit.  Why try to figure out all the unknowns of the “Innovation Stage” when you can get involved with an “Opportunity” or “Business Culture” that has already spent the time and money to figure it out?

3. Innovation – Now how confused are you after seeing that you have to invest in “Innovation”?  I just told you that Innovation is the most difficult stage of business and now here I am telling you to invest in it.  Here is my point.  The only constant in business (and life) is CHANGE.  Therefore, a long-term business learns to embrace and “proactively” manage change.  Often if you are involved in a large “business culture” vs. a small “mom and pop” business, this aspect of the business process is controlled by those that run the business culture.  If this team is “proven leadership”, this really can help you keep your business successful.  However, if leadership cannot manage change, I believe it is only a matter of time before everyone in the business culture suffers from that deficiency.

4. Personal Development – There is a principle that is important to embrace in business – You grow before your business grows.  Having a business is not like a job.  You have to learn many skills and wear many different hats.  You have to learn to get the best out of yourself, but also how to build and cultivate relationships that will have a major impact on your business success (and happiness).   I can tell you that EVERY long-term successful entrepreneur I have met preaches personal development as a key to success.  Those who have grown successful businesses know that their personal development was a major factor in their ability to succeed.  Even more important, their personal development growth paid dividends well outside their business (relationships, happiness, giving back to society, etc.).  In many businesses, the biggest factor that will determine your success or failure is YOU. 

So in closing, I think the fact that you want to invest back in your business is a GREAT SIGN that you understand the importance of this strategy.  The simple truth is that investing back in a business is mandatory for the business to grow and succeed.  I hope what I shared above will help you to “invest wisely”.  Experience has taught me that those who invest wisely tend to reap returns that are much greater than their investment.  Equally, I have seen many businesses fail because of “unwise investment decisions”.  Be smart with your decisions.  If you find something that works, feed it.  That is a key principle of all successful businesses.

(I have had a tremendous response from my “send me your questions” request, and will continue to answer your questions throughout the coming weeks.  If you have a question that you would like for me to address please feel free to email me at gordon@gordonhester.com.)

Leadership is a vital role in the business world.  Leaders tend to drive all business cultures which means their impact on the individuals in those business cultures is very significant.  We see everyday what happens when the wrong business leadership is followed.  Often the consequences are beyond the comprehension of those who were the victims of poor leadership.  Given the dire importance of effective leadership, I thought it might be useful to address this question – What makes a great leader?

The 4 Pillars of Great Leadership

Character– As I have noted in prior blogs, character is a measurement of selfishness.  To be a great leader, you have to put the service of others above your own needs.  I believe that the large majority of the issues in the world today are a symptom of a major problem in society – poor leadership.  In my study of economic history I have learned that the major economic cycles are a result of leadership decisions.  If you study timelines leading up to the big economic winters, leadership at all levels was defined by serving their own agendas vs. serving those who they lead.  Over time, this selfish behavior has created major consequences that lead to Economic Winters.  Sadly, correcting this cycle often takes many, many years.  Remember, it is certainly important that your needs are fulfilled in business, however, the path to fulfilling your needs MUST be secondary to fulfilling the needs of others.  It has been my experience that great leaders have the ability to  fulfill BOTH their needs and those of the people they lead.

Value – Value is your ability to fulfill the needs of another.  If you do not have the ability to fulfill the needs of those you lead, then you cannot succeed in leadership.  This is often why personal growth/development is viewed as one of the more critical aspects of life.  As the old adage goes – you have to grow before your business grows.  Remember, when it comes to value, be sure you can answer the 3 critical needs questions:

1.  What is the person’s need?
2.  How does that person measure how the need is fulfilled?
3.  What does that person expect from you?

If you can meet the needs of those you lead, then you can EARN your title as a leader.  If you do not have the ability to fulfill the needs of others, then those you lead will eventually seek other leaders.  One of my core beliefs in business is that long-term success requires long-term relationships.  That means as a leader you have to be able to do the job.  Remember, leadership is earned every day.  When entitlement takes the place of earning your way, it is only a matter of time before your value as a leader is compromised.

Commitment – I think one of the major distinctions for any leader is their ability to stay committed to being a great leader.  I find that many people lead for a period of time but when their needs are fulfilled, they seem to get away from the aspects of leadership that brought them success.  Instead of being the example in the present, they want their leadership to be defined by past results.  Instead of setting high standards, they want those they lead to have higher standards than them (i.e. work harder).  Leaders stay in the game.  They don’t lead from the sidelines.

Communication – Communication is an aspect of leadership that is seldom discussed.  Great leaders have very distinguishable communication patterns.  First, they communicate from a position of understanding vs. judgment.  They understand that you cannot build people by tearing them down.  They learned to ask a critical question of good leadership – what else can this mean?  Second, they communicate in a way that empowers people to be the best they can be in life.  They fuel resolve in others and judge their own success by how well others succeed.  I have a quote in one of my journals that best describes the ability to empower others.  It was from an interview given by someone who was fortunate enough to be a part of a business culture driven by a great leader.  This person said “when they touched my shoulder I could feel the warmth in my feet”.  In that quote is one of the key communication points – people won’t care about what you say unless they know that you care first.  In the end, that might be the most important communication point. 

Can You Be A Leader?

I believe anyone can be a leader.  It requires you to have a servant’s heart (character).  It requires you to gain the skills necessary to fulfill the needs of others (value).  It requires you to lead by example (commitment).  Finally, it requires you to empower others to be their best (communication).  These are mindsets and skills that anyone can obtain.  Finally, remember that what defines a leader is both achievement and contribution.  Achievement is how you gain a voice.  It is your path to credibility as a leader.  However, contribution is what defines your impact as a leader.  The more people you impact, the greater your leadership.

With that being said, I believe leadership starts with serving a few vs. serving masses of people.  A good example would be a parent or a teacher.  While their impact might not be on the masses, it does not change the fact that the skills to be a great parent or great teacher are the same skills it takes to lead a larger group.  What enables you to magnify the “contribution component” is simply leading in a bigger culture (i.e. business community, political district, etc.).  Therefore, the level of your contribution is simply a result of where you elect to serve as a leader.

It appears that as a society we have moved beyond discussing economics in terms of billions and now the new paradigm is to discuss the overall economic picture in terms of TRILLIONS.  Considering that the US debt is now over $13 trillion, we cannot be surprised that the use of this word has become common in economics and society.  Since most of us have probably never seen a trillion dollars, I thought I might give you perspective on a trillion dollars and some examples of what it means to be $13 trillion in debt. 

What is a TRILLION Dollars?

Below are two examples of a trillion dollars that might help you gain perspective on the size of this number.

The first example is relative to time:

• One million seconds = 11.5 days
• One billion seconds = 32 years
• One trillion seconds = 32,000 years

The second example is relative to money (source: Google Sketchbook):

We’ll start with a $100 bill. Currently the largest U.S. denomination in general circulation. Most everyone has seen them, slightly fewer have owned them. Guaranteed to make friends wherever they go.

A packet of one hundred $100 bills is less than 1/2″ thick and contains $10,000.  Fits in your pocket easily and is more than enough for a week or two of shamefully decadent fun.

Believe it or not, this next little pile is $1 million (100 packets of $10,000).   You could stuff that into a grocery bag and walk around with it.

While a measly $1 million looked a little unimpressive, $100 million is a little more respectable. It fits neatly on a standard pallet…

And $1 BILLION dollars… now we’re really getting somewhere…

Next we’ll look at ONE TRILLION dollars. This is that number we’ve been hearing so much about. What is a trillion dollars? Well, it’s a million million. It’s a thousand billion. It’s a one followed by 12 zeros.

You ready for this? It’s pretty surprising.  Go ahead… Keep reading…

Ladies and gentlemen… I give you $1 trillion dollars (and notice those pallets are double stacked)…

So the next time you hear someone toss around the phrase “trillion dollars”… that’s what they’re talking about.

Getting a perspective of $13 trillion?

Right now our current debt to GDP (total value of the goods and services in our country) is 59%.  By 2012, the debt is expected to be greater than the entire GDP.  Currently our debt is at $13.057 trillion which is about $42,195 per citizen (adults and children).  As of April, our national savings rate was 3.6% (this has been going up).  With a median personal income of $41,056 (based on the average income for men and woman working full time), it would take the country’s 139 million workers 76 years to pay off the $13 trillion in debt if everyone put aside 3% of their income a year.

Did you know?…  Individuals can voluntarily help pay down this debt through a program with the Treasury.  In 2009, the Treasury received $3.063 million in debt-reduction contributions.  At that pace, it would take Americans approximately 5 million years to pay off the $13 trillion.  Keep in mind that this is only if debt remained at its current level.  The simple truth is that debt is actually increasing.  There is a KEY OBSERVATION in this data that I’d like to highlight.  That observation is that the main source of paying off this debt in the future will be additional taxes.  As I heard in a C-Span presentation from Congress a couple weeks ago, there is NO WAY for the economy to grow its way out of the current mess.  In other words, additional taxes and fees WILL be a reality for all of us.

Here is an interesting perspective on what $13 trillion could buy (taken from a recent Smart Money report):
1.  4 years at Yale including room, board and other costs is approximately $190K.  For $13 trillion, 68 million students could get a 4 year free education at Yale.

2. Every person in the US could buy one item from the McDonald’s dollar menu everyday for the next 115 years.  If you did the same thing with every person in the world, the money would last a little over 5 years.

3. As of April, the average home in the US costs $198,400.  With $13 trillion, 65 million families could get a new home.

4. For $13 trillion, every person in the US could see a movie every day for the next 14 years.

5. According to data from the Concierge Medicine Research Collective, $13 trillion could buy 10 years of round-the-clock medical care for more than 928 million people – or the entire population of the US for 30 years.

6. BP estimates the Gulf Coast Oil Spill will cost approximately $40 billion.  $13 trillion could pay the whole tab 326 times over.

7. A Disney Premiere Passport gives the bearer unlimited admissions to Disneyland and Disney World for one year.  For $13 trillion, the entire US population could spend the next 60 years at these parks.

What does this mean to all of us?

Public debt has been a part of our economic model for a long-time.  Clearly that model has been copied around the world.  However, there are two important questions to ask as it pertains to debt.  First, when do you have too much debt?  Second, if you have too much debt, how do you fix that problem?

I do not think that anyone feels the world has too little debt.  On the contrary, most economists feel the world is moving toward a “de-leveraging” process (paying down on debt).  Think about how much our lives are impacted by the ability to borrow money.  Clearly, as the debt becomes less of a tool to drive economic growth, it will impact all areas of society.  Consumers will learn to live within their means because using debt to enhance lifestyle will be difficult as society goes through this deleveraging period.  Businesses who depend on debt will suffer and many will end up failing.  That is why the “right business model” in this “New Economy” will NOT require (1) borrowing or (2) outside investments.  As entrepreneurs, you should align yourself with a business model that works as society goes through the deleveraging process.  Clearly business contraction will lead to higher unemployment.  I think many already understand this reality which is why the pursuit for entrepreneurship is at an all time high and growing.  Governments will default and things we take for granted will change.

As for fixing the problem, it begins with controlling spending.  As the old adage goes, you cannot borrow yourself out of debt.  Just as consumers have embraced the need to pay down their debt and increase their savings, governments also have to learn to live within their means.  If the future is defined by more overspending and the printing of additional money, I suspect the deleveraging process that is inevitable will just be more painful and longer.  Second, you MUST take control of your financial future.  Start a business.  Increase your value to the marketplace so you can keep (or get) a job.  Work harder to drive income and stay ahead of the increase in expenses that are out of your control (taxes, fees and inflation).  Finally, try to simply your life.  Learn to appreciate the simpler aspects of life and embrace this process.  While money might be a vehicle to happiness for many, there are things that are much more important.  As society changes, you have to change with it.  The simple fact is that for those that understand and embrace change, the future can be great.  Given the extent of the problems our society is facing, it is the wrong time and strategy to stick your head in the sand and hope this all works out.

First let me begin by stating that I am a big fan of goals.  They provide many benefits.  First, they give you direction in life.  Second, they are often the fuel for our discipline.  Third, they often become the catalyst to personal and business growth.  As the old adage goes, you have to grow before your business grows.  I learned years ago that possibly the most important part of the goal is not achieving but what you become in the process of pursuing it.  Here are some key distinctions that I have made over the years that enhanced the ability for my goals to drive momentum in all areas of my life.

Strengthening The Vision And Why – In reality, every goal is a vision of how the future can change your life.  That vision or thought process is an examination of how your life will be better as a result of reaching some defined goal.  In essence, it is about accelerating your needs (more money, better friends, more growth, greater contribution, etc.) or accomplishing some need that might not be present in your life (financial freedom, time freedom, love, sense of purpose or significance).  So what drives the fuel behind any goal?  It is the impact that achieving that goal will have on your life.  One way to enhance your vision is to take more time to examine how many different ways fulfilling a goal will change your life.  Remember, we all have many needs.  For example, if your goal is to start a business, most people immediately connect business to money.  However, you should ask yourself these questions.  How will having a business increase your value to the marketplace?  What difference can your success have in your life and the life of your family?  What more can you do in life and be in life if you are financially successful?  Of course there are many other “needs questions” that I could list, but here is the key…  if you really want to fuel your dreams, make sure your dream is bigger than your greatest obstacle.  That means your analysis ultimately must get “out of your head” and “into your heart”.  Emotion is a much more powerful force than logic.  The key to fueling any goal is the connection to that emotion (whether that emotion is pain or pleasure).

The Greatest Dreams Are Ones Bigger Than Your Own Needs – I often see people set “personal goals” like a new car, new home, vacation, etc.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with these types of goals.  However, in my experience, I find that the fulfillment of these goals is often met with great disappointment.  As I began to examine that conclusion, an important distinction came to me.  I found that people who used goals to make their life magical had goals that were focused on OTHERS vs. THEMSELVES.  As you think about your goals, I think you will find the journey of fulfilling your goals will be so much more meaningful when (1) you meet your needs, but more importantly (2) make a difference in someone else’s life.

Make the Journey More Important Than the Destination – A few years ago I had the opportunity to attend a Spiritual Retreat in Fiji with a group of spiritual experts from India.  They were both religious and cultural scholars.  They had spent their lives without judgment of any religion or society in an effort to determine how best to serve others.  They shared with me an observation about our Western Culture that changed my entire perspective on goals.  In their observations, the greatest sources of suffering in our culture were (1) comparison to others, and (2) obsessing about the future.  The obsessing about the future was a real eye opener to me because as a typical “over achiever” I was driven by goals.  However, within that process, I was so focused on the destination that I forgot to enjoy the journey.  When I came home from the trip I changed a few key beliefs.  First, I think the journey is more important than the destination.  As one of my mentors would say, success without fulfillment is failure.  Second, when you obsess about your goals, I believe that not only do you suffer but so do those around you.  Finally, it made me realize that the important part of fulfilling goals is the focus on the activity.  Activity was the only path to results so that became the focus of all my goals.  At this point I implemented a simple strategy that had a profoundly positive impact on my life.  I made sure my day was defined by 4 words – growth, contribution, fun and gratitude.  When those words defined my activity, then the journey to fulfilling my goal was not only more worthwhile, but the reward of achieving the goal seemed to be much more fulfilling. 

As you build goals around your businesses, don’t forget that the real purpose of business is to become all you can be and to use that to serve others.  If that last statement defines your business, then I can assure you that your journey in business will be successful, fulfilling and long-term.

While the focus of my blogs is generally on business and the economics that impact businesses, I wanted to share with you some data that has recently caught my attention.  It clearly shows that the financial institutions are positioning for a change.  Let me see if I can explain the charts in a way that helps us understand what they mean. 

Chart #1 – Swap spreads are the costs to swap fixed rate payments for payments based on floating rates in derivative markets.  It is expressed as a spread, in basis points, over yields on underlying Treasuries.  With that being said, a brief explanation may be helpful.  Swap spreads are indicators of how banks feel about doing business with each other.  When times are good and credit risk is low, the number drops.  That means that banks charge each other less money (or premiums) for doing business together.  Equally, when banks have concerns such as risk associated with other banks credit quality or volatility, the spread increases.  As you can see from the chart, the spread (costs and interest in doing business between banks) has exploded almost 700% from 9.6 basis points in March 2010 to 64 basis points currently.  That means that the concerns banks have regarding doing business with each other has all of a sudden taken a major NEGATIVE turn.  This spread is at a 13-month high.   

 

Chart #2 – This chart looks at the LIBOR rates banks charge each other to borrow money for short periods of time.  LIBOR is the European equivalent of our Federal Funds rate (what the government charges banks when lending them money).  When credit markets are functioning normally, short-term LIBOR tends to move in accordance with the Fed Fund rates.  However, when they are out of alignment, the LIBOR costs rise as banks take into account the risk associated with the possibility that the money they are lending may not be paid back.  As you can see, the LIBOR (borrowing costs) has more than doubled since December 2009 from 25 basis points to 54 basis points.  A lot of this has to do with Sovereign Debt concerns through the European Union.  Although this is still low, it is at the highest level it has been in over a year.  Most important, it is coming at a time when the European Central Banks and Federal Reserve have elected to NOT raise their interest rate.  To summarize, this is a sign that the markets around the world are perceiving a major shift in risk that will impact lending and banking globally.  Credit is going to get tougher and probably more expensive. 

  

There is one other important parameter that shows that the concerns over global economic risk are on the rise and moving very quickly.  That is the credit default swap market.  This is basically where financial players buy and sell insurance against credit risk.  When times are good, insurance is cheap.  However, the costs of this insurance are escalating at an alarming rate.  Right now the insurance to insure a benchmark portfolio of $10 million of investment grade corporate bonds against default is about $131,000.  In January 2010, the same insurance would have cost $76K.

Finally, there is one other piece of information I read this week that you might find interesting.  The IMF studied 122 global recessions and found that the recovery time for a global recession that included problems with financial institutions (which is considered a foundational component of all modern economies) was over 5 years.  That means the recovery for our current recession has a couple years left.  Their research indicated something very important to understand about economic recoveries – when structural problems exist, it takes longer to recover.  I would note that this research was done on recessions vs. depressions.   When the level of problems takes any economy toward a depression, then the consequences tend to be much greater and the recovery time tends to be much longer. 

 So what does all this mean and why am I sharing it with you?

1.  The last time these “credit crisis indicators” were flashing red was right before the stock market meltdown of 2007-2008.  If the market takes a big plunge, it will not only hurt investments but it will put a huge fear in the marketplace.  The fear will impact consumers and businesses.  That means it will show up in spending, hiring, investments, confidence, etc.  In reality, consumers have already begun adjusting their thinking.  The average amount owed on credit cards has dropped from $5600 per person to $3,900 per person.  In families with incomes over 50,000, they have cut their credit card debt in half.  The challenge is that the last time we had this level of unemployment (in the early 80’s), the per capita debt was $14K but has now exploded to about $44K.  Be smart with your debt and work hard to eliminate or decrease it over time.
2. Governments around the world have taken unprecedented steps (borrowing money, printing money, etc.) to avoid the global economy’s need to make some tough choices.  History has shown that bailing out, backstopping and popping up institutions and assets during a private credit crisis vs. letting the markets correct themselves, comes with consequences.  In essence, what has occurred is that governments around the world have replaced Wall Street debt with Sovereign debt (debt for each country).  The underlying problems of the global economy have NOT been solved but only delayed.  Even worse, the governments around the world have historical levels of debt which ultimately will come at a huge cost to consumers around the world (taxes, fees, inflation, job stability, etc.). 
3. In my opinion, the de-leveraging of the global economy will be a long and painful process.  Don’t make decisions as if our economy is going to be “business as usual”.  Understand this “new economy” will require you to think and operate differently.  As Japan showed us, long-term economic winters create paradigm shifts in thinking.    
4. Those that are NOT prepared will suffer the worst.  Equally those who are prepared will be an example of a lesson that history has taught us through economic winters – chaos and adversity are often the catalyst to opportunity.

Given this data, it is my opinion that the big institutions are getting positioned for the next level of awareness that the global economic winter is here to stay.  Don’t drink the Kool-Aid and think it will be “business as usual” anytime soon.  Of course societies will suffer but I suspect they will also grow.  Change is often tough but the end result of financial change will benefit society and economies around the world.  It is important to understand how to grow in this type of an economic shift.  As I often advise:  the most important strategy you can incorporate right now is to FOCUS YOUR ATTENTION ON MAKING MORE MONEY.  For those with income stability and cash reserves, the world will be filled with opportunities.  Now is the time to move in that direction. 

One final comment:  This is NOT a “Chicken Little” blog.  The sky is not falling and the world is not coming to an end.  Cycles are a part of every aspect of life.  Change is the only constant.  If you focus on what you can control and use awareness as a tool to make good decisions, solve problems well, and to fuel discipline, YOU CAN SUCCEED IN ANY ECONOMIC CYCLE!!!!!!!!!!!